Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1002).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (14.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.1% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 34.4% red zone run rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.