Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 9, 2025

Updated Nov 2, 2025 8:47 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 275.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 276.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 275.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Chiefs have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.0 plays per game.
Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
Patrick Mahomes has attempted 36.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 90th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see only 124.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.7 per game) this year.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-fewest yards in the league (just 179.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

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