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Patrick Mahomes
NFL · Player Props
Patrick Mahomes
QB · Kansas City Chiefs
Passing Yards
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 9, 2025 Updated Nov 2, 2025 8:47 PM EST
NFL Props Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 275.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 276.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 275.5 @ -115.

Favors Over
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The Chiefs have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.0 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Patrick Mahomes has attempted 36.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 90th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.
Favors Under
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see only 124.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.7 per game) this year.
  • Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-fewest yards in the league (just 179.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
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