Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 2, 2025

Updated Sep 14, 2025 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 236.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 235.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 236.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 65.5% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.2 plays per game.
The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.0 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.
The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes ranks as one of the best passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 263.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 5th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the league.
Patrick Mahomes's 63.2% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a meaningful diminishment in his throwing precision over last year's 68.3% rate.
Since the start of last season, the tough Eagles defense has given up a feeble 188.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Eagles defense has given up the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a feeble 6.8 yards.