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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 245.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 236.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 245.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
  • Patrick Mahomes has attempted 38.2 throws per game this year, grading out in the 97th percentile among QBs.
  • The Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
  • The predictive model expects this game to chug along at the 13th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 30.7 per game) this year.
  • Patrick Mahomes's 63.6% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a significant diminishment in his throwing accuracy over last year's 68.3% figure.
  • Opposing QBs have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in football (just 189.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Chargers defense this year.

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