Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 9:27 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 267.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 259.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 267.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.9 per game on average).
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the projection model to have the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 38.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in football versus the Broncos defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the fierce Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a mere 7.0 yards.
The Broncos safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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