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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 232.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 230.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 232.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.7% pass rate.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.

This year, the poor New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a massive 5.58 YAC.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are a heavy favorite by 8 points.

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Chiefs this year (a mere 54.0 per game on average).

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (224.0) this season than he did last season (274.0).

This year, the imposing New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered a paltry 66.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-best rate in football.

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