Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2024

Updated Feb 9, 2025 11:01 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 253.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 251.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 253.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (68.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.
The model projects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In registering a massive 33.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes ranks among the top QBs in football (82nd percentile) by this measure.
The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 26.4 per game) this year.
Patrick Mahomes's 233.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks a noteworthy decrease in his throwing proficiency over last year's 274.0 mark.
This year, the formidable Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered a puny 160.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the fewest in the NFL.
This year, the strong Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a mere 6.8 yards.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's unit has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in the league.

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