Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 20, 2024

Updated Jan 18, 2025 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 256.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 246.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 256.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 68.3% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 136.5 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.
The Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.5 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.6 passes in this contest, on average: the most out of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8.5 points.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the strong Houston Texans defense has conceded a mere 63.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the NFL.
The Houston Texans pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, surrendering 7.04 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in football.

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