Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 8:56 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 238.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 240.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 238.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a massive 61.3 per game on average).
This week, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the predictive model to average the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.1.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have only 124.6 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.

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