Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 5, 2024 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 268.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 257.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 268.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes checks in as one of the best passers in the league last year, averaging a stellar 323.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.
In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.
Last year, the stout Ravens defense has conceded a puny 65.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.
Last year, the stout Ravens defense has given up the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a mere 6.3 yards.
The Ravens safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

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