Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:36 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 43.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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