Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 13, 2024

Updated Nov 30, 2024 2:36 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 66.1% pass rate.
The Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.4 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In averaging a massive 36.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes rates among the top QBs in football (95th percentile) by this measure.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Chiefs grades out as the best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

With a 13.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.6 total plays run: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.

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