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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-112/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

In throwing a colossal 36.9 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes slots in among the top quarterbacks in football (93rd percentile) by this measure.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

Patrick Mahomes's 63.3% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a noteable regression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 68.3% figure.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football vs. the Jaguars defense this year (64.9% Adjusted Completion%).

The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

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