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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.1 per game on average).
  • In this game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the projections to wind up with the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.3.
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite this week.
  • Patrick Mahomes's passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 68.3% to 65.2%.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league versus the Texans defense this year (65.2% Adjusted Completion%).
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Houston's unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

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