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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: most in the league.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

With a terrific 67.5% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) last year, Patrick Mahomes has been as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.

Last year, the stout Ravens defense has conceded a puny 65.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

The Ravens safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

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