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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 6

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.

The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.

This year, the porous Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a massive 82.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the highest rate in the NFL.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Denver's group of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.

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