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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Chiefs are a giant 13-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • Patrick Mahomes has averaged 5.2 carries per game this year, one of the largest rates in the league among quarterbacks (88th percentile).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to run on 40.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • While Patrick Mahomes has received 23.0% of his team's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Kansas City's rushing attack this week at 17.4%.
  • As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Las Vegas's group of DEs has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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