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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-116/+109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -116.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

Patrick Mahomes has averaged 4.8 carries per game this year, one of the highest rates in football among quarterbacks (90th percentile).

After comprising 9.3% of his offense's run game usage last year, Patrick Mahomes has been called on more in the ground game this year, currently sitting at 21.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Jacksonville's safety corps has been excellent this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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