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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 3

New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 6-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.

The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack in this game (17.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.3% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Giants defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

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