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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -126 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.
  • The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.9 per game on average).
  • Patrick Mahomes has averaged 4.3 rush attempts per game this year, one of the largest rates in the league among quarterbacks (76th percentile).
  • Patrick Mahomes has been a more important option in his team's running game this year (19.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (9.3%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The Denver Broncos safeties rank as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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