Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
In regards to run-blocking (and the influence it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs grades out as the best in the league last year.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Los Angeles's group of DEs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 3rd-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 38.1% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

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