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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+630/-720).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +660 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +630.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Steelers to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in football to tight ends: 0.83 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • At the moment, the 8th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (46.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
  • The Steelers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 49.6 plays per game.
  • After accruing 28.0 air yards per game last season, Pat Freiermuth has regressed heavily this season, now pacing 14.0 per game.
  • Pat Freiermuth's 18.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 34.2.

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