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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+410/-670).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +450 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +410.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

With a remarkable 19.5% Red Zone Target% (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Pat Freiermuth stands as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.

When talking about air yards, Pat Freiermuth grades out in the towering 82nd percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 27.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the 7th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.6% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

Pat Freiermuth's 76.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 89.0% figure.

The receiving touchdown column reads "0" on the back of Pat Freiermuth's trading card this year.

The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 4th-fewest receiving TDs in football to TEs: 0.20 per game since the start of last season.

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