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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-740).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -690 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -740.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Pat Freiermuth has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth has posted a monstrous 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among TEs.

Pat Freiermuth's 33.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 84th percentile for tight ends.

With an excellent rate of 0.37 per game through the air (91st percentile), Pat Freiermuth has been as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 57.1% rate of running the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league in these situations has been the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.10 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.

Pat Freiermuth's 84.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 89.0% figure.

Since the start of last season, the imposing New England Patriots defense has surrendered a meager 0.26 passing TDs per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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