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Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+395/-460).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +435 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +395.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.This year, the stout Texans run defense has allowed a measly 0.76 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 8th-smallest rate in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.After accumulating 28.0 air yards per game last year, Pat Freiermuth has posted significant losses this year, now averaging 20.0 per game.Pat Freiermuth's 23.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 34.2.Pat Freiermuth's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 89.0% to 78.5%.This year, the formidable Houston Texans defense has conceded a measly 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the league.
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