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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+360/-520).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -475 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -520.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line indicates a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 61.5% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower run volume.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
  • When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
  • After totaling 28.0 air yards per game last season, Pat Freiermuth has produced significantly fewer this season, now pacing 18.0 per game.
  • Pat Freiermuth's 22.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 34.2.
  • Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 89.0% to 79.9%.
  • This year, the daunting Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded a paltry 0.25 passing TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.

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