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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-580).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +405 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +390.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
  • With a stellar rate of 0.33 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Pat Freiermuth rates as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in football among tight ends this year.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL against the Dolphins defense this year (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Dolphins defense has been torched for the 3rd-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.54 per game this year.
  • The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 58.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 50.8 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.5 per game) this year.

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