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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+355/-470).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +410 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +355.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
  • To the extent of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.96 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the present time.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Pat Freiermuth grades out in the 87th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.36 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.3 per game) this year.
  • Pat Freiermuth has accrued far fewer air yards this year (17.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
  • Pat Freiermuth's 21.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 34.2.
  • Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 89.0% to 84.1%.

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