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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+370/-440).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +410 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +370.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.
  • With a remarkable ratio of 0.33 per game through the air (84th percentile), Pat Freiermuth rates among the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among tight ends this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Steelers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.8 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • After accumulating 28.0 air yards per game last year, Pat Freiermuth has regressed heavily this year, currently pacing 20.0 per game.
  • Pat Freiermuth's 23.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 34.2.

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