Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2025

Updated Oct 26, 2025 11:27 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: most in the league.
This year, the feeble Packers pass defense has conceded a colossal 84.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 49.3 plays per game.
Pat Freiermuth's 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 34.2.
Pat Freiermuth's play as a receiver has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 2.2 adjusted receptions compared to 3.9 last season.
Pat Freiermuth's 81.5% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 89.0% figure.

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