Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-111/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to garner 5.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has been a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack this season (19.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%).
Pat Freiermuth has been among the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an impressive 4.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (74.9%) to tight ends this year (74.9%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Pat Freiermuth's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 67.7%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have used play action on a mere 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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