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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-108/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

In this week's game, Pat Freiermuth is anticipated by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets.

Pat Freiermuth has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 15.9% since the start of last season, which places him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

Pat Freiermuth's 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates a significant reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 41.0 rate.

Pat Freiermuth's 76.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 89.0% figure.

Pat Freiermuth's receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 7.05 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.35 rate last season.

Since the start of last season, the fierce Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed a measly 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 10th-best rate in the NFL.

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