Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 13, 2026 4:02 AM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 5.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
Pat Freiermuth has been used less as a potential target this season (55.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (75.8%).
After accumulating 28.0 air yards per game last year, Pat Freiermuth has posted significant losses this year, now averaging 20.0 per game.
Pat Freiermuth's 28.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year illustrates a noteable regression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 41.0 figure.
Pat Freiermuth's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 89.0% to 78.5%.

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