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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Steelers being a heavy -7-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to pass on 65.1% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.0 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • The Steelers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.3 plays per game.
  • After averaging 28.0 air yards per game last season, Pat Freiermuth has seen a big decrease this season, currently pacing 17.0 per game.
  • Pat Freiermuth's 21.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 34.2.
  • Pat Freiermuth's 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year represents a meaningful decline in his pass-catching skills over last year's 41.0 mark.
  • Pat Freiermuth's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 89.0% to 79.7%.

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