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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-103/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -121.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
  • To the extent of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.96 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the present time.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Pat Freiermuth comes in as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging an exceptional 8.69 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 75th percentile.
  • As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Buffalo's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 9th-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.3 per game) this year.
  • Pat Freiermuth has been used less as a potential target this year (52.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (75.8%).
  • Pat Freiermuth has accrued far fewer air yards this year (17.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
  • Pat Freiermuth has posted a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (24.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).

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