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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.

The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The model projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 5.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.

Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.8% to 58.7%.

More Pat Freiermuth Player Props

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