Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to earn 6.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack this season (19.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%).
Pat Freiermuth has put up significantly more air yards this year (53.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 68.9%.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (65.3%) versus TEs this year (65.3%).

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