Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 8.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has notched many more air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth's 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 26.8.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 69.0%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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