Parris Campbell Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Parris Campbell

NFL · Player Props

Parris Campbell

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Parris Campbell Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+352/-686).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -677 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -686.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
Parris Campbell has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a terrific 76.5% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (72.7%) vs. WRs this year (72.7%).
The Tennessee Titans defense has conceded the most passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.60 per game this year.
The Tennessee Titans cornerbacks project as the 5th-worst group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Parris Campbell has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (53.0 per game).
Parris Campbell's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 31.7.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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