O.J. Howard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

O.J. Howard

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

O.J. Howard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
O.J. Howard's 17.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 6.0.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (77.1%) versus tight ends this year (77.1%).

Favors Under

O.J. Howard has been among the weakest TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a lowly 1.0 receptions per game while ranking in the 12th percentile among tight ends.
O.J. Howard's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.8% to 49.5%.
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans have used motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.