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Odell Beckham Jr.

Odell Beckham Jr. Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Odell Beckham Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.

This year, the anemic Patriots pass defense has yielded a whopping 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-biggest rate in football.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.

The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Odell Beckham Jr.'s 15.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 41.7.

Odell Beckham Jr.'s 1.4 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a meaningful diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year's 2.6 figure.

More Odell Beckham Jr. Player Props

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