Nyheim Hines Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Nyheim Hines

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Nyheim Hines Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Nyheim Hines to earn 4.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Nyheim Hines has accumulated a monstrous 8.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.