Nyheim Hines Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Nyheim Hines

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Nyheim Hines Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-1011).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Nyheim Hines has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 12.5% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Nyheim Hines has compiled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Nyheim Hines's 25.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 18.7.
Nyheim Hines's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 72.9% to 88.0%.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to running backs: 0.10 per game since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.