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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders

Noah Gray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+520/-640).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -640 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -640.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 70.2% pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 134.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.

The Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.

The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

This year, the deficient Commanders pass defense has allowed a colossal 84.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a big 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

Noah Gray has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (9.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).

Noah Gray's 10.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 19.5.

Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 85.0% to 68.1%.

With an awful rate of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Noah Gray ranks as one of the bottom receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to TEs this year.

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