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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Noah Gray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+600/-680).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +610 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +600.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 64.3% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 65.0% red zone pass rate.
  • When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year.
  • This year, the deficient Lions defense has given up a whopping 0.60 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 29.02 seconds per snap.
  • After averaging 21.0 air yards per game last season, Noah Gray has produced significantly fewer this season, now pacing 8.0 per game.
  • Noah Gray's 11.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's 61.0% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a remarkable diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last season's 85.0% rate.
  • The receiving touchdown field reads "0" on the back of Noah Gray's trading card this year.

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