My Account Log Out

reorder

Noah Gray

Noah Gray Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+560/-750).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -790 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -750.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.25 per game) against the Jaguars defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

Noah Gray has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game).

Noah Gray's 14.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 19.5.

Noah Gray's 61.3% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 85.0% mark.

More Noah Gray Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™