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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Noah Gray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+460/-810).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +475 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +460.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.9% red zone pass rate.

At the moment, the 3rd-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.

The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (38.5 per game) since the start of last season.

The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Noah Gray's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 85.0% to 56.6%.

When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

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