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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Noah Gray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1650/-2500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -5250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2500.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Kansas City Chiefs will be forced to start backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The Chiefs are a massive 13.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (61.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see 133.1 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Noah Gray has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (13.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game).
  • Noah Gray's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 85.0% to 59.2%.
  • The receiving touchdown column reads "0" on Noah Gray's stats page this year.
  • This year, the tough Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a mere 66.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football.

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