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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Noah Gray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+690/-940).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +800 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +690.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.5% red zone pass rate.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • This year, the deficient Tennessee Titans defense has been torched for a massive 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a running game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.1 total plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • After totaling 21.0 air yards per game last season, Noah Gray has produced significantly less this season, now boasting 14.0 per game.
  • Noah Gray's 13.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's 59.0% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant decrease in his receiving proficiency over last year's 85.0% mark.

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