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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Noah Gray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+950/-1050).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1050.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (63.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.1 per game on average).
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite this week.
  • Noah Gray's 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 85.0% to 62.3%.
  • Noah Gray grades out in the 1st percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league versus the Texans defense this year (65.2% Adjusted Completion%).

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